I don’t have to remind everyone how bad the stock market has been over the past year and a half, but the last month has brought some welcome relief. Most major markets have seen 20-25% gains in just a few short weeks making it one of the shortest and strongest rallies since the 1930s. While it’s always nice to see the market moving up instead of down, what does the future hold?
You may have noticed my post yesterday that talked about the March rally in more detail and how some investors who have recently sold are now regretting their decision, but there’s still plenty of time for things to play out. History is no predictor of future results, so it’s very possible that this is just a strong bear market rally. On the other hand, it could end up being a turning point and we may not see last month’s lows again. I obviously don’t have the answer, but I wanted to follow up yesterday’s post with a poll to get the general sentiment. Are you sensing a true bottom, or is this just a blip that will be erased in coming weeks as markets plunge back to new lows? Let’s hear it!
[poll = 56]
Author: Jeremy Vohwinkle
My name is Jeremy Vohwinkle, and I’ve spent a number of years working in the finance industry providing financial advice to regular investors and those participating in employer-sponsored retirement plans.
I feel that the economy gets better. It was pretty hard during the recession and even though I know that it won't be that soon before everything gets back to normal t'll at least know that it's downhill from now on.
The markets are definitely not going to get better for a good while still. There is just too much lopsidedness that has to be balanced out, and a total reappraisal of actual value and worth is upon us. Get debt free and buy gold is about the best advice I can offer, along with learning how to grow your own food.
I don't think the market is going to get any worse. It's probably going to be like this for a little while until peoples' start feeling confident in the market again. Everyone should start buying.
I think what we are seeing in this market is a leveling off. I don't see the market screaming to 10k but I do see a period of slow growth and re-evaluation of actual values of many things. I liked rob's button suggestion of "sideways"
We're nowhere close to the bottom. There are still lots of ARMs that have yet to reset. They'll be doing that in earnest for another three years.
I am optimistic about the market and believe that the Dow reached its bottom. I would not however be so naive as to suggest that the worst is not yet to come. I believe unemployment, consumer activity, credit concerns, and rising costs will continue to hurt many of us.
Behavioral finance teaches me that since most people do not think we have bottomed out, then we have in fact bottomed out.
Kevin does make a good point. At no junction during the last year has my investing changed.
I don't think it matters. I'm writing an article about this for next week. People need to be investing through the recession. There's no sense in worrying about where the bottom is or trying to time the market. Dollar cost average your way through the mess and you're going to come out a winner unless the economy totally collapses.