I think it’s funny how just a few months ago the media was still talking about how we’re on the brink of the next great depression and we’re setting the stage for the equivalent of an economic apocalypse, but fast-forward to today and all the news is glowing and painting a rosy picture. It’s amazing what just a few good weeks in the market can do. Then again, they are more focused on grabbing your attention and gaining readers, not actually providing any intelligent insight.
That being said, there is some encouraging news out there. I’m not an optimist or a pessimist, but more of a realist. I won’t ignore some of the bad news that’s still out there just to get excited by a recovery that may or may not happen yet. At the same time, I’m not going to dismiss the good news and continue to proclaim doom and gloom. Instead, I think there’s some valuable information out there that is starting to paint a different picture of the economy, but the jury is still out on what will come of it.
We still have a long way to go in the housing market. While there might have been some headlines this past week or two that sounded quite encouraging, there’s still a lot of inventory out there and prices in many places still have a ways to come down yet. The same goes for unemployment. Jobs aren’t created overnight and companies won’t go on a hiring spree at the first sign of improving conditions, so those who are unemployed may still have a long way to go. The good news is that a lot of economic indicators aren’t dropping like a rock month after month any more, so at the very least, things are at least starting to hold up. This could very well be the sign of better things to come sooner rather than later, but we’ll just have to see.
So, I’m curious as to what the readers think about the economy right now. Have you ignored all of the glowing news completely and still hunkered down preparing for the worst, or are you starting to feel as if things really are improving and the worst is behind us?
Author: Jeremy Vohwinkle
My name is Jeremy Vohwinkle, and I’ve spent a number of years working in the finance industry providing financial advice to regular investors and those participating in employer-sponsored retirement plans.
From the mass delusion that we've bottomed out. Hmm, largest real estate failure GGP, Monetizing our debt, Home foreclosure phone lines are so swamped that people can't get a hold of anyone even after being on hold for 2 1/2 hours... Yeah, sure sounds like we're recovering.
I feel that the economy is never going to truly recover in the conventional sense. There is too much paper around due to inflation, and this has to depreciate again. Everything works in cycles, and if you look at the greater picture you'll have to concur that we're in a bit of a downward trend at p[resent, with worrse to come.
I feel, the economy is recovering. Because depending on the place where I'm living the prices are becoming more stable and the stock exchange also has a positive trend.
This is the 1930s all over again. I've said for a long time that we've been in a slump since 2001. 8-9 years later, we're still in one. You might say that 2010 will be like 1937 (up only to fall again). 2011 might be good, but 2012 will be another humdinger (not because of the "2012 all things will end" scenario either but because ARMS will reset again for that big chunk of folks who bought homes in 2007 who will be under water for a long time).
I don't think we'll really know until 2010. Consumer confidence/spending needs to pick up and we probably won't see that until the Xmas shopping season.
I'm not too excited or optimistic about economy either. We need more time to see if things are getting better or worse or stay the same.
"I’m not an optimist or a pessimist, but more of a realist."
I think we all are, in our own minds. :)
Me? I haven't a clue what's coming next.
I was going to vote for yes, I think the "worst" is behind us in the sense of a triggered collapse of the worldwide banking system; but I still wouldn't really call it a recovery yet, because of other fundamentals that haven't changed... I don't think we'll go back to the October and February lows, but whatever gains have come since March I think could still go up and down for a while... a few analysts have been pointing out that we need to see real earnings in companies in the next quarter or these have been just nominal gains. So I'm waiting for September.
I think that just like with anything else in life, things take time. I am constantly aware of the economy issues and do not let some positive media coverage comfort me for the time being. I believe we still have a long way to go.